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Grace Guo 郭茹一

Data Science @ Harvard

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v 1.2

Don't Apply for SPEEDRUN with Just an Idea

When we applied for the SPEEDRUN accelerator by A16Z, we were fueled by our groundbreaking idea and the belief that passion and innovation might just be enough. However, the outcome served as a reality check: SPEEDRUN is not the place for mere ideas, no matter how promising—they seek tangible traction and a proof of market fit.

The Prelude to SPEEDRUN

Our venture into SPEEDRUN began with an ambitious vision for SHUO, an accelerated social network that blends AI with gaming elements to create instant, meaningful interactions. Our team—a dynamic mix of experts in AI, gaming, and business—had already tasted early success. Prior to our application, we launched SHUO in China, quickly attracting about 5,000 daily active users. Encouraged by this early success, we decided to enhance our product by integrating gaming components, aiming to capture the U.S market. Thus, we applied for speedrun and we thought we had all the right ingredients.

Interview Invitation

We received an invitation to interview on April 26th from a16z. We were quite surprised as we weren’t expecting ourselves to make it to the interview stage. As we are all students with limited flexibility in scheduling, we negotiated back and forth with them several times to set an interview date. We finally decided to do our interview on April 30 4:30PM.

Prepare, and Be Prepared

I believe a 45-minute interview is easier than a 15-minute one. There's more room to elaborate on answers, whereas keeping responses concise can be challenging. Therefore, our primary focus during preparation was to highlight key points such as our unique idea, vision, and insights from both ShUO and previous projects.

We spent one day outlining these bullet points and three days refining them to the core essentials, aiming for simplicity and clarity. Through mutual practice and mock sessions, we ensured our delivery was straightforward and clear.

The 15-Minute Interview

It's essential to arrive early as they start exactly on time and end just as punctually, often due to the tightly scheduled nature of their interviews. The interview was intense, as questions coming quickly one after the other. However, they didn’t interrupt us for any of the questions which was unexpected. Time passes surprisingly quickly in such settings—trust me, fifteen minutes is shorter than you might think. It’s crucial to have a firm grasp on the key information you need to share and to be able to communicate it concisely. Since we are still in the early stages, our discussion mostly revolved around plans, visions, and concepts.

Here are some interview questions that i can still remember (can’t remember them all)

  1. Could you provide a brief overview of your product?
  2. How did your team come together to work on this project?
  3. In what ways does your product stand out from solutions like ChatGPT?
  4. Why are you passionate about this project, and what makes you believe in its success?
  5. How does your product incorporate gaming into its social media framework? What role do games play in your app?
  6. Could you discuss your past expenses and outline your plans for future capital allocation?
  7. Where are you located?

Rejection and Feedback

The rejection was hard to accept, but it also spurred our growth. We received a rejection email on May 8 from Robin Guo. After the interview, the feedback was straightforward: we were too early in our journey. SPEEDRUN recognized the innovation behind SHUO and appreciated our team, but they needed more evidence. They wanted to see greater user engagement, more data on retention, and stronger proof that our market was ready for what we had to offer.

v 1.1

我从金钱心理学中学到了什么?

从上语文课不再有必读书目开始,我好像渐渐丢失了阅读的习惯。所以,在2023年的12月31号,我立下了一个难以启齿的小目标:新的一年要阅读10本书。 作为一个理科生,我对个人资产管理一直迷茫且好奇。那就这么决定了,2024年,从《金钱心理学》开始[1]。

1.拥有800万美元资产的修理工

这是本书最让我震惊的例子。这名修理工名叫唐纳德·里德(Ronald Read)[2],他一生都在加油站工作。直至他92岁去世时,他的家人才得知他的净金融资产达到了800万美元。在他去世那年,一共有200万人去世,只有4000人死时的资产大于800万。这意味着他的财富水平处于顶尖的0.2%。

里德拥有90%的储蓄率。 积累财富,与你的储蓄率关系很大。只有存下来的钱才是你的资产,而你必须控制自己财富外露的欲望。

「时间+复利」的魔力更是难以想象。 假设你有一万美元,并以10%年回报率投资,40年后你将会得到:452,592.56! (45万美元)

2.选择

在美国,低收入家庭买彩票平均一年花费400美元。他们收入的9%都进入了彩票公司的口袋。

对他们来说,购买彩票似乎是实现财富梦想的唯一途径,一种“渴望型保险”(aspirational insurance)。对于财富阶梯最下面的家庭来说,彩票提供了一种独特的逃避现实的方式。 用少量的钱,换取赢得大奖解决财务困境的微小可能性。这种行为在表面上看似不合理,但从心理和社会学的角度来看,却提供了一种即时的希望和可能性,尽管这种希望是如此渺茫。

对于普通投资者来说,最简单的方法仿佛是去复刻成功人士的案例。打我记事起,家里的书柜上就摆着巴菲特的个人传记《滚雪球》。 中文版与英文版都有。但是,研究这些极端成功案例存在风险,因为这些案例的结果往往在很大程度上受到运气或特定风险因素的影响。极端成功往往伴随着极高的不确定性和不可复制的独特情境,这意味着简单地模仿这些成功案例,或许会获得意想不到的、更大的失败。

3.尾部是驱动一切的关键

尾部的力量 (The Power of the Tail) 是一个统计学概念,指那些低发生率但高影响力的事件,在数据分布的“尾部”出现。这些事件虽然发生的概率很低,但一旦发生,其影响力巨大,足以对整体结果产生重大影响。

我最喜欢的演员布拉德皮特接受演员工会奖时的说:“我拍了30年电影,从中发现了一个简单的道理,那就是有些作品会成功,有些不会,没必要去深究哪些会,继续拍下去就行。”

书中提到了一个数据,在2004年道2014年超过2.1万起创业融资中,65%是亏损的,而0.5%获得了超过50倍的回报。这样的小部分是VC行业收入的主要来源。

最后引用一句我很喜欢的话来结尾:“退出无谓的激烈竞争,以获得内心平静的方式来调节你的行为,才是真正的成功。”


[1] https://collabfund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2015/02/09/heres-how-a-janitor-amassed-an-8m-fortune.html